Will the ‘Trump recession’ continue to hit US tourism in 2026 – and even drive away World Cup fans?

With the upcoming FIFA World Cup taking place across the country, 2026 was supposed to be an event A booming year for tourism to the United States, driven in part by throngs of incoming soccer fans.

However, The US tourism industry is concerned. While the rest of the world saw an increase in travel in 2025, with The number of international arrivals worldwide increased by 4%The United States witnessed a decline. The number of foreign tourists who came to the United States decreased by 5.4% During the year – a sharper decline than Which he witnessed in 2017-18the last time, outside the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, that the industry suffered fears of a travel slump.

The Trump administration’s policy positions on everything from immigration to tariffs, along with currency fluctuations and stricter border controls, appear to be proving to alienate travelers from other countries, especially Canadians — the largest single source of foreign tourists to the United States. Canadian travel to the United States has declined 30% in 2025. But it’s not just visitors from Canada who choose to avoid the United States. Travel from Australia, India and Western Europeamong other things, also shrunk.

we They are experts In tourism. Although we do not have a crystal ball, we believe that the decline in tourism in 2025 may continue until 2026. The evidence is clear: Washington’s continuing policies Postponing potential travelers. In other words, the tourism industry is in the midst of a “Trump recession.”

Fewer Canadians are heading south

The impact of Donald Trump’s policies is perhaps most evident when we look north of the US border. According to the U.S. Travel Association, Canadian visitors will generate approximately 20.4 million visits and approximately $20.5 billion in visitor spending in 2024. Supporting about 140,000 American jobs.

Economic impact of fewer Canadian visitors in 2025 It mostly affects border states Which relies heavily on people driving across the border for retail, restaurants, casinos and short stay hotels.

The sharp decline in Return trips by car to Canada It is a direct reference to that Frontier economies may face pressure. This has led elected officials and Tourism professionals to attract Canadians In recent months, sometimes with “Canadian deals only“.

This is not limited to border countries only. in las vegas, Some hotels now offer currency parity between Canadian dollars and US dollars for rooms and gambling vouchers in an attempt to attract customers.

States with winter sun, such as Florida, Arizona, and California, experience fewer short-stay arrivals and An Emerging Decline in Canadian ‘Snowbirds’Reports indicate a significant increase in the number of Canadians listing US properties in Florida and Arizona On sale and canceling seasonal plansand threaten housing, health care spending and property tax revenues.

Economic and safety concerns

The Trump administration’s economic policies appear to be among the main reasons visitors are turning away from the United States. Highest levels since 1935 – Along with more stringent Boundary discourse And aggressive Foreign policy It has contributed to creating a negative perception of the United States among potential tourists.

Many foreigners report feeling unwelcome or uncertain about traveling to the United States Some public leaders from Canada and Europe have urged citizens To spend locally, instead. This is remarkably so Low intention to travel To the United States in 2025.

Meanwhile, exchange rates and inflation have further affected some aspiring travellers, especially Canadians. Canadian dollar weakens in 2025 Which makes American flights more expensive. This has disproportionately affected daily commutes and shopping-based border crossings.

Travelers are also turning away from the United States Because of safety Fears. Many countries have published travel warnings Risks of traveling to the United Stateswith Germany is the latest. Although most of the concerns relate to the recent increase in border controls Aggressive tactics by immigration agents may have added to the decisions of potential visitors Avoid us.

A wake-up call for the United States

Current tourism forecast is Cause for concern. Julia Simpson, President and CEO of the Global Travel and Tourism Industry Association Description of the situation As a “wake-up call” for the US government.

“The world’s largest travel and tourism economy is headed in the wrong direction,” she said in May 2025. “While other countries are welcoming, the US government is marking ‘Closed’.”

According to estimates, the United States would have lost approx $30 billion in international tourism In the year 2025, travelers choose to travel elsewhere.

The disappointing numbers for US tourism follow a longer trend. Share of global international travel to the United States It decreased from 8.4% in 1996 to 4.9% in 2024 It was expected to fall to 4.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, arrivals to other major tourist destinations are expected to rise, including France, Greece, Mexico and Italy.

It is also declining It is felt by the business tourism sectorWith every major global region sending fewer people to the United States to work.

World Cup bump?

So what does this mean for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, with 75% of soccer matches hosted across the United States? Traditionally, host nations benefit from sporting events The effects are often overestimated. After a disappointing year, the U.S. tourism industry expects the World Cup to boost visits and revenues.

But Trump’s foreign policy It may undermine those expectations.

new Visa safety fees Worth $250 and plans to Check social media For some visitors it makes traveling to the United States less attractive. And there is an increase Calls for a boycott of the United States In the wake of some of Trump’s policies, including his aggressive stance on Greenland.

Former FIFA president Sepp Blatter suggested this Fans avoid going to the United States For the World Cup.

It remains to be seen whether fans will follow his call. Flight and hotel reservations She was awake After announcing the dates and locations of the matches in December.

But so is the current political discourse Affect travel decisionsespecially in light of this Fans from some specific countries You may not be able to obtain visas. The US government imposed a travel ban on Senegal, Ivory Coast, Iran and Haiti, all of which qualify for the World Cup.

Even European football leaders have discussed it Possibility of interruptionalthough such a procedure is It is unlikely to happengiven the revenues at risk for national teams and football associations.

Will the “Trump recession” continue?

White House policies are unlikely to change radically in the next few months. This causes concern for tourism professionals Most have remained silent about the recent crackdown on immigration.

To make matters worse, federal funding for Brand USA, the national destination marketing organization, was significantly reduced in mid-2025, resulting in staffing shortages that reduced the country’s ability to Counter negative emotions through positive promotion.

Football fans tend to passionately follow their national team. This could offset some of the impact of the decline in travel due to Trump.

However, with Ticket prices for the match are very high With the United States’ international reputation as a tourist destination damaged, we believe the tourism industry is unlikely to recover in 2026. It will take a long time and good strategies to repair the serious damage to the nation’s image among travelers in the rest of the world.