One year after Vance’s ‘provocative’ speech, what is Rubio’s message in Munich?
When US Vice President J.D. Vance came to the Munich Security Conference last year, he stunned his hosts by telling them that the suppression of free speech by Washington’s European allies posed a greater security risk than Russian military aggression.
This year, with the US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Europeans may be hoping for an easier trip — while Russia and China are closely watching for new signs of fractures in the Western alliance.
“Secretary Rubio and the Vice President deliver messages differently, they have different personal styles. But I think there’s 100 percent alignment on policy,” Alexander Gray, who served on the National Security Council during Trump’s first term in the White House, told RFE/RL.
He added, “The message will sound like the National Security Strategy: clear about our interests and where they overlap with Europe but not shy about pointing out areas of disagreement that are of concern.”
New national security strategy
The National Security Strategy, released in December 2025, was largely in keeping with the spirit of Vance’s speech, criticizing what she called “cultural erasure” — a reference to European policies on online hate speech and immigration. It has won praise from Moscow by talking about restoring “strategic stability” with Russia.
It was one of a series of moments that have marked a difficult year in transatlantic relations, from a heated dispute in the Oval Office between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the European response to US pressure on Denmark to hand over Greenland.
At the same time, Trump’s repeated statements that Europe needs to rely less on Washington to defend itself and Ukraine have raised fears of a US withdrawal from the Old Continent.
“The United States no longer views Europe as its primary theater of geopolitical engagement,” Gray said. “For a simple reason. Russia is a declining and terminally declining power. This is not the greatest threat to the United States.”
He added: “I don’t think Europe has basic civilizational concerns… There’s just a fundamental imbalance between American conservatism and mainstream European political economy.”
Before the conference, US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker took a similar line. The United States and Europe were working together on defense, but they disagreed on values.
Speaking at an event in Berlin on February 9, Whitaker said Vance gave a “provocative speech” that raised “legitimate criticism” on issues such as energy policy, immigration and free speech.
He added, “But at the same time, this does not mean that we will get a divorce.” “Many of our allies may criticize the United States of America, but we remain your best friend and ally.”
The tense partnership between the United States and Europe
Asked about Greenland, where Trump initially said he would not rule out the use of force before backing away from that possibility after talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in January, Whittaker said it was “a question of whether or not Denmark has properly invested in Greenland” and warned of “malign influence by China or Russia.”
Alarmed European leaders sought to placate Washington by pledging to dramatically expand defense spending in line with Trump’s demands for greater NATO burden-sharing.
They also made sure to repeatedly praise Trump’s leadership in international affairs while emphasizing shared history and values. More of this behavior is likely to be on display in Munich.
“I expect a kind of ambivalent mood,” Carlo Massala of the German Armed Forces University in Munich told RFE/RL.
He added: “The Europeans and Americans will reassure themselves that, in one way or another, they are still partners. But behind closed doors, the Europeans will fundamentally struggle with how to become more independent from the United States.”
Masala, who published an influential book last year called “If Russia Wins,” about the Russian incursion into NATO member Estonia, said the entire transatlantic relationship was now “Ukraine-centric.”
Washington has significantly reduced its support for Kiev since Trump took office in January 2025. But it still plays the main role in providing intelligence to the Ukrainian armed forces, and still supplies Kiev with weapons paid for by European countries.
“If this administration even steps away from these matters, the picture will of course be very different for the Ukrainians,” Masala said. “So the way Europe engages with the United States is fundamentally focused on keeping the United States engaged with regard to Ukraine.”
Zelensky has followed a similar strategy in several meetings with Trump and other administration officials since the Oval Office dispute. But he repeatedly urged the Europeans to do more without waiting for Washington.
At last year’s conference, he called for the creation of a European army. It’s a message he may repeat in Munich this year. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, Zelensky mentioned the idea again while expressing frustration at what he described as… Groundhog Day Strong words that are not followed by decisive action.
“Just last year here in Davos, I ended my speech with these words: ‘Europe needs to know how to stand up for itself.’ A year has passed and nothing has changed.”
It’s a sentiment that Richard Shirreff, NATO’s former deputy supreme commander in Europe, agrees with.
“You can exclude the United States. This is the trend of Europe and Canada,” he told RFE/RL. He added: “There will not be a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine until Russia is defeated in Ukraine, and for that to happen, it will require Europe and Canada to design and implement a strategy to give Ukraine all the support it needs.”
Key NATO leaders do not share that view, said Shirreff, now a member of the Security and Defense Council at GlobSec, an international think tank.
“I think (Canadian Prime Minister Mark) Carney understands that. I think the rest of us are just talking. They don’t understand that. I don’t think there’s that real backbone at the moment. Let’s be clear: Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Finland – they certainly understand that. But I’m afraid I think the (other) Western leaders are politically pathetic and inappropriate on this matter,” he said.
He added, “The attempt to appease Trump by people like Rutte, (British Prime Minister Keir) Starmer, and (French President Emmanuel) Macron led to Trump’s disdain for them.”
Focus on Ukraine
Ukraine has frequently exposed disagreements between Washington and its European NATO allies over the past year and will feature in many of the discussions in Munich. European leaders have publicly supported Trump’s efforts to broker peace, but have also stated that they do not believe Russia is sincere in its desire to end the large-scale invasion it launched in February 2022.
On February 10, Annual report of the Estonian intelligence service He was the latest to express these concerns, stating that Moscow’s cooperation in peace talks was a “ruse” aimed at “widening what Moscow sees as existing differences between the United States and Europe.”
Meanwhile, in another sign of transatlantic tension, European media quoted Macron as saying that Trump was “openly anti-European” and seeking to “dismember” the EU.
Macron’s interview was a renewed attempt to gain a role for Europe in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. He reportedly said that Europe should seek its own dialogue with Russia “so as not to depend on third parties in this discussion.”
European Union Foreign Policy Coordinator Kaja Kallas followed by saying: “Everyone around the table, including the Russians and Americans, must understand that they need the Europeans’ participation.”
That shouldn’t be a big deal, said former Trump adviser Gray, now CEO of American Global Strategies LLC.
He added: “Europe certainly has a role to play. I’m not sure that this role will necessarily be in the day-to-day conversations, but I think it is clear that Europe will have a major role in discussing… what a future security settlement in Eastern Europe looks like.”
