NATO ministers seek unity with focus on security and spending goals in the Arctic

NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels on February 12 for their last official meeting before the alliance’s summit in Ankara in early July.

No concrete decisions are expected to be taken in the Belgian capital. Instead, the meeting revolves around two things.

First, an attempt to heal the growing rift between European allies and the United States, which has been exposed during recent discussions surrounding the political future of Greenland.

The second – and not entirely separate from the first issue – is figuring out how to achieve the decision taken in The Hague last year that all 32 allies would spend 5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035.

The Greenland debate still looms even though it is not part of the official discussion. While one European NATO official said there was a “fundamental violation of trust” within the alliance on the issue, most diplomats RFE/RL spoke to seemed to agree that it was best not to raise the issue for now.

Arctic Sentinel

The hope is that the military coalition’s launch of an “Arctic Watch” mission just one day before the ministerial meeting will demonstrate that everyone is on the same page in taking security in the North seriously, and that this will silence any talk of a potential American takeover of Danish territory.

Speaking about the Arctic ahead of the ministerial meeting, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte noted, “For the first time we will put everything we do in the Arctic under one command. Not only will we benefit from everything we do, but we will also see what gaps there are and we will fill them,” adding, “We are doing this because we have a clear sense that the Russians and the Chinese are becoming more active there.”

Sources who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity say there are roughly two camps in the coalition on how European capitals should respond to recent events.

Some countries, led by France, are still suffering from American pressure and want European countries to diversify their economies faster away from the American security umbrella.

In the other group, there are countries, especially on the eastern side, that have concluded that there is little European countries can do in the near future, and that they must therefore rely on American protection and good will for years to come.

These countries agree with Rutte’s view that Europe would not be able to defend itself without America, even if countries spent more than 5% of GDP. This includes US nuclear capabilities that cannot be easily replaced, but also satellite technology, military intelligence, and other strategic enablers.

There is still hope that the camps will show a united front during the ministerial meeting, and that this will continue when most participants rush to Munich for the annual security conference on February 13-14, with most wanting to prevent a similar transatlantic fallout to the one that was on full display in Davos just last month.

Defense spending

But for that to happen, European countries and Canada must meet the second issue, which is increasing defense spending.

As one European military official told RFE/RL: “2026 is about implementation, implementation, implementation.”

With most countries reaching 2% of GDP on defense last year, this represents a major undertaking. But this is the only point they know that US President Donald Trump and his administration will continue to focus on Europe and Canada.

Ahead of the ministerial meeting, Rutte put a positive spin on things by highlighting the spending spree in Germany, one of the main European members of the alliance, where he said investment had “risen by tens of billions.”

“By 2029, Germany will spend 152 billion euros ($180 billion) on defense,” he said. “This is more than double what they were spending in 2021. So, in eight years they will double their defense spending. This is just one example of many.”

All NATO countries must submit their strategic level reports, which outline military spending for the next five years, before the ministerial meeting. This worries some countries because they do not plan to spend as much in the coming years before potentially increasing spending as the target date approaches, so they can meet requirements in a timely manner – an “accounting trick” known as the “hockey stick method” in NATO.

This is something American officials have made clear they will not tolerate, and Washington will warn the Europeans that they will have to be able to provide credible defense spending and incremental progress before going to the Ankara summit in order to make it work.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will not participate in the Brussels meeting, but will instead be represented by his deputy, Elbridge Colby. The Europeans, who is widely seen as a man who may be more hawkish on spending than his boss, will be careful not to cross him.

His speech is expected to focus on the need to “Europeanize NATO.” This basically means three things: spending more, the willingness of European countries to fight, and the need to strengthen various capabilities. Few are expected to challenge this.

Ukrainian “whizzing baby”

But while Colby will be the most watched man in the room, part of the cabinet meeting will also be devoted to a newbie many are looking forward to hearing from. At the NATO-Ukraine Council session, the new Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov will make his military alliance debut in his new position.

There is a buzz in Brussels about the 35-year-old “tech guy” and political “prodigy” who previously served for several years as the country’s digital transformation minister.

Officials are particularly keen to see how Fedorov, one of the closest confidants of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, will be able to reform and modernize the still highly centralized Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

But NATO officials actually hope he will also share his knowledge of cutting-edge drone warfare and cyber capabilities. “He’s probably the biggest expert in the room on all the latest technologies,” said one diplomat.

But what about financing for Ukraine?

The NATO-led PURL initiative, in which European allies pledge money to purchase US-made weapons destined for Ukraine, has reached nearly $5 billion in 2025. The alliance is seeking to repeat that in the spring as Russia continues to bomb the country daily with missiles.

But interestingly, NATO is no longer publicly announcing when the new PURL packages will be approved – after a request from NATO members to remain anonymous and strategic.

But some sources. It is feared that this is rather a reflection of the decline in the desire to buy American products in many European countries, and the growing fatigue about financing the war, which is about to enter its fifth year.