Will Moscow recover from a new blow on the battlefield in Ukraine?
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, most of the headlines have been about the role of the Starlink satellite internet service in the war. He was Over its use by Ukraine, such as the tension that erupted when SpaceX, owned by American tech billionaire Elon Musk, refused to give Kiev access to the system for operations in the Black Sea near Russian-occupied Crimea.
Suddenly, though, it became interesting to focus On Russia, which has been relying heavily on Starlink for battlefield coordination and drone strikes, using terminals smuggled into war zones in eastern and southern Ukraine. This illicit use was sharply curtailed last week, when SpaceX cut off access to the system from unauthorized stations on the International Space Station. to request Ukraine and its tech-savvy new Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov.
The blow to Russian military operations comes at a critical juncture in its war on Ukraine, under the government of President Vladimir Putin. He seeks to Yasser The entire eastern Donbas region is using the battlefield advances to pressure Kiev for territorial concessions in the US-led effort to reach a peace deal.
Russian forces have been scrambling for alternatives, according to military analysts, Ukrainian officials and hard-line Russian “war bloggers,” who have raised alarms about the effects on the Russian advance, which has been extremely slow and costly heading into the four-year mark of the invasion that Putin had hoped to achieve. Subjugate Ukraine within weeks.
They’re relying on temporary measures while looking for long-term alternatives — but experts say those measures fall short of Starlink’s speed, coverage and flexibility.
Ihor Romanenko, a retired lieutenant general and former deputy chief of the Ukrainian General Staff, told RFE/RL that Russian forces have “largely lost the ability to effectively target offensive drones, including witness aircraft, and conduct reconnaissance.”
‘“urgent adaptation”
Serhiy Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser with the call sign Flash, said on social media that “Russian offensive operations have been halted in many regions” due to a loss of coordination capabilities.
Such allegations could not immediately be independently verified. “Russian units are urgently adapting to the whitelist system, which deactivates unregistered stations, by sourcing and deploying readily available alternatives,” said Viktor Kivlyuk, a military expert at the Ukrainian Defense Strategies Center.
“Russia has focused on its own service providers using the Yamal and Express satellite (networks), which are geostationary and designed primarily for civilian and government use. Terminals that resemble traditional satellite dishes — oval or round, unshielded, and oriented to the southeast/south — are moved to front-line units,” Kivlyuk said.
But he added that these stations are “easier to detect and target because of their fixed orientation and inability to move.”
“Starlink signals are more resilient to electronic countermeasures from Russian ground systems,” Lauren Williams, deputy director and senior fellow in the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told RFE/RL. Without this, Russian forces would likely be more vulnerable.”
However, this development “will not immediately lead to surprise Ukrainian breakthroughs or major victories” for Kiev, Yan Matveyev, a Russian military analyst who lives abroad, told Current Time. The main reason behind this, he said, is “because in order to advance and break through, you need large forces even in the current bottlenecks of the front,” and Ukraine – Struggling With manpower problems – they may not have enough forces for such efforts.
‘Contraband solutions
Starlink has played a particularly important role in Russian drone operations. Long-range drones have become a key tool for Russian strikes on Ukraine’s hinterland, including energy infrastructure, and the presence of Starlink terminals on these drones suggests that this technology was in use. Spread out Systematically and on a large scale.
Blocking access to Starlink does not mean Russia has completely lost the ability to fight, analysts said: Its forces maintain alternative communication channels and continue to use drones with radio control, autonomous guidance, or closed networks that do not rely on Starlink — albeit with lower accuracy and speed.
Meanwhile, experts said the long-term impact of the moratorium will depend on how quickly Russia adapts. “The lasting impact will depend on whether Russia is able to expand its domestic satellite systems, rely on less effective alternatives, or develop contraband workarounds,” Kivlyuk said.
Ukrainian officials say Russia’s efforts include attempts to pressure or lure Ukrainians to register Starlink stations for Russian use, with Beskrestnov confirming on Facebook that bribery is among the tactics used. “My advice to traitors: Don’t even try it,” he wrote.
The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War also reported cases in which Russian forces threatened relatives of Ukrainian soldiers detained by Russia to force them to register Starlink stations. The headquarters added: “Once again, the enemy considers relatives and friends of Ukrainian prisoners a source of manipulation.” He said. This claim could not be immediately verified.
“Soldiers in the trenches”
Some Russian commentators have done so I posed Reactions will be more aggressive, but Putin’s government may be reluctant to take such steps.
“Kremlin propagandists have threatened kinetic attacks on SpaceX satellites or U.S. infrastructure, but these are viewed as self-harm due to the risks of escalation and orbital debris,” Kivlyuk said. “What makes more sense are deniable tactics like jamming, spoofing, or cyberattacks on Starlink.”
In any case, Russia is “looking for solutions at the highest levels,” Romanenko said.
Publicly, Russian officials, from Putin on down, have said little or nothing about Starlink’s restrictions, although the Russian delegation at a U.N. conference criticize Starlink argued that it would violate an international treaty on outer space.
But the Starlink shutdown led to a wave of anger from pro-war Russian bloggers active on social media, many of whom criticized not SpaceX but the Russian government, which they say is not fighting the war aggressively or effectively enough.
One of the Telegram channels, called Dossier — Secret Contour, Suggested That the Kremlin should “publicly explain to the soldiers in the trenches” why the state is spending billions of rubles on civilian projects such as Internet messaging software the highest, Instead of creating a complete (Russian) satellite communications system.”
The Russian newspaper Kommersant said last month I mentioned The launch of the first 16 satellites of a system that Moscow hopes will be a domestic alternative to Starlink delay After initially being planned for late 2025.
