Vance trip to Caucasus ‘plants science’ with economic deals amid genocide controversy

It is sandwiched between Iran and Russia and was shaped by more than three decades of conflict. Armenia and Azerbaijan Russia received rare high-level attention from Washington this week, when US Vice President J.D. Vance visited the two countries, a trip that analysts said underscored American influence in a region that Moscow has traditionally viewed as largely domestic.

The visit witnessed economic deals in both countries and sought to strengthen relations between them US-brokered peace agreement Between them. There was also controversy when Vance’s X account posted a tweet referencing the World War I-era mass killings of up to 1.5 million Armenians by the Ottoman Empire, then deleted it. Genocide.

“Russia has been weakened by its failed invasion of Ukraine,” Richard Giragosyan, founding director of the Center for Regional Studies in Yerevan, told RFE/RL.

He added, “The Vice President actually had accomplishments – practical agreements with both Armenia and Azerbaijan – which made it more of a US planting of the flag in the region, and a message to Russia.”

TRIPP aisle in the center

Beyond symbolism, the visit had practical and economic implications.

At the heart of the talks in the two capitals was the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a proposed 43-kilometre road and rail corridor through Armenia that would connect Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan enclave while opening a new east-west trade artery bypassing Russia and Iran.

The transit route forms part of the peace agreement reached in Washington in August 2025 between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

“There is actually a lot of capital interested in this particular project,” Vance said in Yerevan. “There are a lot of people around the world who think they can make a good return by investing in Armenia and investing in this TRIPP project.”

Giragosian said Vance raised the prospect of “investing billions of US dollars in the operation of the TRIPP agreement.”

Another outcome of the visit was an agreement reached under which Armenia indicated that it would depend on the United States to help replace the aging Metsamor Nuclear Power PlantWhich generates about a third of the country’s electricity and is scheduled to close in 2036.

Pashinyan said the Soviet-built reactor would be replaced with small modular reactors — a newer technology now being explored globally — despite competing interest from Russia. Vance said the agreement could pave the way for up to $5 billion in primary U.S. exports and another $4 billion in long-term fuel and maintenance contracts.

There is also a nuclear safety risk at the site. The Metsamor plant, built in the early 1980s, operates in a seismically active zone, making modernization an issue of broader regional security.

The United States is scheduled to supply Armenia with reconnaissance drones worth $11 million. The amounts are much smaller, but analysts said this reflects Armenia’s broader trend away from dependence on Russia.

While Azerbaijan looks to Türkiye and NATO’s standards, Armenia – once highly dependent on Moscow – is increasingly turning towards India and now towards the United States and the West.

Strategic partnership with Azerbaijan

In Baku, Vance signed a strategic partnership charter covering economy, trade, energy, connectivity, artificial intelligence, digital development, security and defence.

This comes in the wake of a similar agreement signed with Armenia last year.

However, unlike the Azerbaijan Charter, which was signed under the Biden administration, the agreement with Armenia explicitly emphasized support for democratic institutions and the rule of law – areas in which Armenia was generally assessed to have performed better than Azerbaijan.

Osman Gunduz, who leads prominent Azerbaijani nongovernmental groups focused on the IT sector, wrote in a social media post that the deals signed showed that “US business values ​​Azerbaijan not only as an energy nation, but also as a hub for artificial intelligence, data, and financial technologies.”

While in Baku, Vance also said Washington would provide “new boats” to help Azerbaijan protect its territorial waters.

“It’s clearly about potential risks that could come from Russia and Iran – the other Caspian Basin countries,” Rauf Mirgadirov, an independent Azerbaijani analyst based in Europe, told RFE/RL.

In Baku, Vance also laid a wreath at the Alley of Martyrs complex, which commemorates Azerbaijanis killed in 1990 during the crackdown on anti-Soviet and anti-Armenian protests as well as those who died in the conflicts with Armenia.

Post-“genocide” debate.

Earlier, during his visit to Armenia, Vance visited the Armenian Genocide Memorial in Tsitsernakaberd, a majestic site that is on the itinerary of most visitors to Yerevan.

Vance’s official account on the X website described the visit as aiming to “honor the victims of the 1915 Armenian Genocide,” then deleted the post. Officials said the publication was made by mistake. “This is an employee-managed account,” a Vance spokesperson said.

The issue is very sensitive. Neighboring Türkiye, a US ally and NATO member, acknowledges that mass killings occurred but insists it was not genocide.

Dozens of countries recognize it as genocide. US President Donald Trump has not used the term, although the US Congress voted to recognize it as such in 2019, and Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, also used the term.

“The Armenian public and Armenians in America who support Trump are very upset,” political analyst Giragosyan said after the post was deleted.

There was also controversy in Azerbaijan, where Vance’s visit left imprisoned political activists and journalists unsure whether their potential release had been discussed with President Aliyev.

The Vice President’s spokesman referred to discussing prisoner releases, but it was not clear whether that was referring to members of Azerbaijani civil society or Armenian prisoners being held in Baku.

Human rights groups have widely documented Azerbaijan’s poor human rights record, citing arbitrary arrests, long-term detention, beatings, torture and enforced disappearances – allegations that Aliyev’s government denies.