There is a crisis of competition in US state legislatures – and that is bad for democracy

Many Americans Report frustration with the two-party systemwhere Democratic and Republican candidates are seen as the only viable option for elective office.

But the worrying trend in many state legislative elections is lowering the bar even further, to something resembling a one-party system. In dozens of states, a growing number of state legislative seats are completely uncontested by one of the two major parties.

State legislatures play a critical role in American government. As congressional gridlock has intensified in recent decades, state governments have increased in popularity I picked up the slack on policy making.

However, in many states, there is competition over who serves in these legislatures Significantly deteriorated.

The result is a real crisis in political representation, political innovation, and candidate recruitment.

The size of the problem

In many cases, one of the only two viable parties is unable to field enough candidates for the state legislature to challenge the other, more dominant party.

Although uncontested seats in Congress remain relatively rare – approximately 3% to 4% of US House districts in recent sessions have been uncontested – the phenomenon has become endemic in state legislatures. in recently election Coursesbetween 30% and 50% of legislative seats in the House of Representatives across the country were not contested by one of the two major parties.

Even more surprising is the lack of competition in individual countries, some of which have much less competition than others. Some states, such as Michigan and Minnesota, regularly field candidates of both parties in almost all of their state legislative races.

Massachusetts is a different story: In its lower legislature, no major party competed in more than half of the races in each election. Since at least 2010. In the 2024 election, four out of five seats in Massachusetts House races went unopposed. In Mississippi, of 174 seats in the state legislature, only 25 — 14% — were actually contested by both parties.

In practical terms, this means that for many state legislatures, in every election cycle, which party will control the majority in the next legislative session – an essential prerequisite for governing and passing legislation – is literally a foregone conclusion. In these two chambers, one party or another presented candidates for less than half of the legislative seats.

In other words, it is mathematically impossible for this party to win a majority, even if its candidates win every seat they contest.

in 2022 sessionFor example, a simple majority for Democrats or Republicans was guaranteed in 22 chambers in 16 states. In some of these cases, one party secured a veto-proof majority—meaning that party had enough legislators to override the governor’s veto if necessary—before even a single vote was counted in the election.

What is and what is not behind a non-compete

Several factors contribute to the prevalence of uncontested races, including the individual decision-making processes of potential candidates.

Running for office requires significant investments of time and money, as well as significant sacrifices of privacy and, in many cases, public and personal reputation. Many individuals interested in the service even decide that the cost is not worth it, especially when winning is not a guarantee.

The calculations become clearer in highly partisan areas, where the other party’s presidential candidate may have won by about 40 or 50 percentage points in a previous election. Here even qualified candidates face almost certain defeat. It is easy to see why potential candidates might reasonably decide to withdraw.

The structural explanations for this lack of competition are more complex. For example, gerrymandering—the practice of drawing district lines to favor one party—is possible It is often cited As the main culprit.

But while gerrymandering does happen and is worth worrying about,… Evidence indicates It is not the main driver of uncontested seats. Many states with independent redistricting commissions, such as Idaho, have seen high rates of noncontests despite drawing competitive districts. Meanwhile, many states where legislatures control redistricting, such as Minnesota and Florida, maintain strong competition.

This phenomenon also does not correlate with whether a state is red, blue, or somewhere in between, suggesting that partisan control of redistricting alone cannot explain this trend.

Two complementary factors are likely to be important. Firstly, Geographic partisan sorting Concentration of politically like-minded people in communities over the past three decades. Democrats consolidated in urban centers while losing ground in rural areas, especially in the South and Midwest. This residential classification creates areas that are naturally uncompetitive no matter how the boundaries are drawn.

Secondly, state and local party organizations did this It witnessed a significant decline in power and influenceEspecially in states where one party has an overwhelming advantage. These organizations have historically been… Employment and support networks For candidates running against incumbent office holders.

In the absence of a strong local party infrastructure, even qualified candidates in minority parties lack the resources and institutional support needed to organize viable election campaigns.

Competition is essential to a functioning democracy

Whatever the underlying reasons, the consequences of uncontested races extend far beyond the immediate lack of choice on the ballot.

when Neither party faces any real electoral threatResearch shows that policy innovation and responsiveness suffer. Dominant parties lack the necessary incentives to develop proposals that address the concerns of all voters, or to take seriously the ideas of the opposition.

More importantly, the prevalence of uncontested races raises questions about democratic legitimacy. Elections are not just mechanisms for selecting office holders, but rather they are… Opportunities for citizens to evaluate Governance and holding officials accountable. When voters face no choice – when a candidate wins by default rather than by persuasion – the basic requirements of democratic representation are not met.

Obstacles to renewed competition

Reversing this trend requires overcoming significant practical obstacles.

Recruiting qualified candidates to run for office is Famous for its difficulty; Recruiting them to seemingly unwinnable seats is almost impossible. Persuading national party organizations, interest groups and donors to invest resources in what they view as “desperate” races presents a similar challenge.

But the consequences are too great to ignore, and go beyond democracy or political considerations.

State legislatures act as Primary training ground For candidates who later seek higher positions. When parties and the talent of their candidates decline to compete in entire states, they lose not only direct electoral contests, but also the opportunity to develop future leaders at the federal level.

Competition cannot be manufactured superficially, and the causes and solutions to its recent decline are complex. However, both must be taken into account. Without real competition, elections risk transforming from a genuine exercise of popular sovereignty into a mere administrative formality.