Why might the Epstein files bring down the British government?

Questions about the exact nature of Donald Trump’s relationship with the late financier and sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein have dogged his presidency in both of them conditions It was given new life last week when the Department of Justice Millions of new “Epstein files” released.

But for all that, Trump, and any number of other strongmen, would rather the ongoing Epstein story, and its actual political impact, disappear. impact In the US it may end up being limited, given the attention the story has received. Barring a major drop in a new shoe, Trump won’t have to resign over Epstein, nor will Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who testified in Congress on Tuesday about… I had lunch on Epstein’s Island in 2012 After previously indicating that he had cut ties Years ago.

It is not clear whether there are any other high-ranking political figures or… Business leaders Those whose names appear in the files will suffer serious consequences as well. To be sure, other prominent American figures have suffered reputational damage, but if the last thirty years of American political life have taught us anything, it is that… Larry Summers will be back.

However, the same cannot be said for every country. The world leader most likely to be brought down by the Epstein files is not Trump, but British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The files contain some very damaging information about Peter Mandelson, a long-time power player in Starmer’s Labor Party whom he appointed as ambassador to the US, despite the fact that Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein was already known.

These discoveries led to a state of turmoil in the British government. Two of Starmer’s top aides – his chief of staff and communications director – have already resigned over their role in Mandelson’s appointment, and one of his senior aides has also resigned. The third is likely on its way out. Anas Sarwar became Scottish Labor leader on Monday The biggest person you can contact Starmer should resign. So far, so is Starmer He categorically rejected calls to step down And other ministers in the Council of Ministers Surrounding the Prime Ministerbut some high-level sources think so It’s a coin toss Whether he will remain in power.

Ironically, it appears that by pushing for the files to be released, over Trump’s objection, congressional Democrats in the US may inadvertently bring down the center-left leader of another country entirely.

But why exactly does this happen?

Who is Mandelson and what did he do wrong?

Mandelson, 72, has been an active and highly public figure in Labor Party politics since the 1980s. He has held a number of ministerial posts and, along with former Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – in whose governments he served – was considered one of the main architects of “New Labour”, the neoliberal centrist shift the party took in the 1990s.

His nickname in the days when he was Blair’s doctor was “Prince of Darkness”, and he has never had a clean reputation: this is the third time he has been forced to resign in scandal, Firstly two Due to financial irregularities, he has previously faced media scrutiny Because of his relationship with Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. “He’s always had slightly dodgy relationships with people who have a lot of money,” said Anand Menon, a political commentator and professor at King’s College London.

Thanks to these scandals and his centrist policies, he has never been particularly popular among the Labor Party’s rank and file. However, when Starmer He appointed him as ambassador When he arrived in the United States in 2024, the prevailing belief was that he was the kind of powerful, seasoned political heavyweight who would command respect in Donald Trump’s Washington.

Starmer He says he knew That Mandelson had an affair with Epstein, as was reported by the Financial Times It was widely reported in 2023So it would be strange if he didn’t – but Mandelson had misled him about the extent of it and that “none of us knew the depths and darkness of that relationship.”

After the release of the Epstein files, both the ones published last fall and the latest batch, We all know a lot About Mandelson’s relationship with the man he described as his “best friend.” Epstein’s 2003 Christmas book“.

The files include lewd jokes exchanged between the two men referring to sex and nudity after Epstein’s initial prison sentence for soliciting prostitution from a minor in 2008. Mandelson expressed support for Epstein after that conviction and offered to talk to his political contacts about the case. (Mandelson, who is gay, is not accused of participating in the abuse of underage girls, unlike other men in Epstein’s orbit, although the emails contain some references to what Epstein calls Mandelson’s “romantic complexities.”)

Mandelson also appears to have sent Epstein internal government emails and sensitive insider financial information while he was Gordon Brown’s business secretary, an allegation over which he has been charged. Currently under investigation by police. Epstein He also sent Mandelson $75,000 In several batches dating back to 2003.

Mandelson was dismissed from office Ambassador last September Because of his ties to Epstein. Last week, he submitted his resignation from Labor Party From his seat in House of Lords. He has expressed remorse for his relationship with Epstein but denied the financial payments.

Why is this so bad for Starmer?

It is worth noting that Starmer was already one of the least popular leaders in the Western world, months before the latest Epstein revelations, with clear approval. Classification of more than 40 underwater points.

The Labor Party won The 2024 British elections result in a relatively landslide victory in terms of parliamentary seatsAlthough he received only 33% of the popular vote. The victory was seen less as a reflection of Starmer’s personal charisma than as a result of fatigue resulting from 14 years of Conservative rule, a period that included Brexit and its turbulent fallout as well as the financial crisis. Boris Johnson’s scandal-ridden government.

The Starmer government has so far been characterized by several embarrassing situations Policy turns, Questionable appointments Even before Mendelson, A Hard shift to the right Trump has been vocal about issues such as immigration that have angered his base without doing much to stem the rise of the far-right Reform Party, which now leads national opinion polls.

Menon says the Mandelson case touches on the core of the Starmer government’s identity in ways that exacerbate its existing problems with voters.

“Labour’s selling point when it was in opposition was not that it was going to fix everything,” he said. “It was: ‘We’re going to bring some of the honesty and stability that the Conservatives were clearly missing.’

It’s hard to prove this case when you’re around someone who was sending government emails to an alleged sex trafficker.

Starmer’s best hope of survival may now be The mysterious procedure that Labor is holding leadership challenges. Potential challenges would need to gain the support of 80 members of parliament, preferably before news leaks, public backlash and backstabbing from rivals. In practice, politicians who issue leadership challenges rarely actually get the job, so the best tactic is to find a “stalking horse” willing to take on the responsibility.

If all is said and done, who might replace Starmer? At the moment, the Labor seat is seen as somewhat vulnerable. Among the names most often mentioned is Angela Rayner, who is linked to the party’s left and resigned as deputy prime minister last year. After underpaying taxesand Wes Streeting, the current health minister who has come under scrutiny On his own connections to Mendelssohn.

In all likelihood, the current Labor government, with Starmer or someone else at the top, will last until 2029 when an election must be called. Given the state of the polls, no Labor Prime Minister will call a snap election at this time.

The party’s next challenge will come on February 26 in a A special election (“by-election” in British politics) for a seat in the north of England Which Labor has held for 90 years, but where the far-right Reform Party and the left-wing Green Party pose strong challenges. A loss there will only exacerbate panic and calls for new leadership.

Menon points out that the scandal comes at a time when Britain has long dominated the political scene Parties are historically weak. Therefore, the most likely political beneficiary, at least in the short term, is the Reform Party and its populist leader, Nigel Farage, who is allied with Trump.

“The Epstein crisis is a bit like a right-wing conspiracy theory made flesh,” Menon said. “If you were Nigel Farage and wanted to write the script for the best scandal to highlight the point you make about the corrupt elite, this would be it.”

Of course, it could be well into 2029 and the reform might collapse as well, although Farage has often demonstrated a Trumpian ability to withstand scandal. Labour’s best hope, says Menon, is “a long period of quiet without scandal, a period in which growth appears to be picking up”.

Why doesn’t this happen in the United States?

Taking into account both Labour’s troubles and The final downfall of Prince AndrewThe Epstein case appears to be an American political scandal with primarily British consequences.

As Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said in a frustrated tweet last week: “Britain ousted a prince, forced Mandelson to resign, and lost confidence in Starmer because Rep. Thomas Massie and I forced the Epstein files to be released. What is America doing to hold the Epstein class accountable?”

After all, unlike Starmer, Trump himself is in the files, Contributing sexual innuendo His own. It turns out that Lutnick had contact with Epstein years after he previously claimed. Secretary of the Navy John Phelan Apparently he flew on his own plane In 2006.

So what’s the difference? The content is important: For all the embarrassing material on the US side, Mandelson’s communications are more direct than most, and take place after Epstein’s prostitution accusations (unlike Trump’s accusations). Birthday noteand Phelan’s jet ride), is linked to a possible legal investigation. The other factor is that the political system in Britain makes it easy for the ruling political party to dismiss its leader. There are also differences in the narrative: Starmer was elected to clean up government, but was found to have shown poor judgement. Trump was elected despite what the public already knew about his volatile personality subjective, legaland a job History, incl Previous allegations of sexual assault.

Or perhaps the political and media culture in Britain is completely different. I asked Sir Anthony Seldon, the eminent political historian known for his biography of every prime minister since John Major, what the difference was between the two cases.

He replied: “Issues of financial and sexual impropriety loom very large in the public mind in the United Kingdom, as does the transfer of information to foreign powers, and these factors underlie all British scandals.” Whether or not that makes Britain a better country than the United States is up to others.